HURRICANES
Losses Could Reach $15 Billion if Hurricane Helene Hits Tallahassee, Says R Street
OLDWICK, N.J. //BestWire// - Insurers could face losses of as much as $15 billion if Hurricane Helene makes landfall close to Tallahassee, according to Jerry Theodorou, R Street director of finance, insurance and trade policy.
Landfall southeast of Tallahassee, but north of Tampa in the more sparsely populated Horseshoe/Suwannee area, would lower R Street’s loss estimate to the single-digit billions, excluding insured flood losses.
Aon emphasized on Sept. 26 that Helene is a very large hurricane with a higher-than-normal chance of strong winds inland. “In fact, comparing the system with previous hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico over the past couple of decades, Helene is at the upper bound in terms of size.
“As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far away from the center and well outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians,” said Aon.
Guy Carpenter noted there have “only been four named storms in the 21st century over the Gulf of Mexico that have reached the same size of tropical storm force winds as Helene: Irma (2017), Ike (2008), Ivan (2004), and Isidore (2002).”
Landfall could bring significant impacts to Tallahassee if the eyewall moves directly over the city, said Guy Carpenter. “As Helene moves further inland, the decay of winds is expected to be lower than average due to the quick forward speed and frontal interaction.
"Helene is expected to bring sustained tropical storm winds and hurricane force gusts as far inland as Atlanta; this is the sixth year of the last decade Atlanta has been under tropical storm warnings. Helene’s impacts will potentially be more acute than previous tropical storms due to its quick forward speed helping the storm maintain a higher intensity.”
Gallagher Re earlier allowed for a range of insured losses starting in the billions of dollars (BestWire, Sept. 25, 2024).
Theodorou said “more frequent and more powerful catastrophes can be expected... The knowledge that climate change is real and that it contributes to disasters means that individuals, communities, counties, states and the country must first recognize the risks, and then act to protect property, and — insofar as possible prevent losses.”
The five largest writers of homeowners multiperil insurance in Florida during 2023, based on direct premiums written, were: Citizens Property Insurance Corp., with an 18.57% market share; Universal Insurance Holdings Group, 8.47%; State Farm Group, 6.88%; Florida Peninsula Group, 4.88%; and Tower Hill Group, 4.35%, according to BestLink.
(By Renée Kiriluk-Hill, senior associate editor, BestWire: Renee.Kiriluk-Hill@ambest.com)